I Analyzed FSD Data to Predict When Tesla Will Achieve Full Self-Driving

Hey,

I've been exploring FSD data from Tesla FSD Tracker and doing some curve fitting just for fun.

Steps:

1. Data Scraping: I scraped the data from the version table page.

2. Data Aggregation: I aggregated the data (city miles driven and critical disengagements) for each major release. For example, data from versions 12.5.1 and 12.5.2 were combined with 12.5.

3. Confidence Interval Calculation: I calculated the 80% confidence interval using the formula listed here.

4. Curve Fitting: I tried fitting an exponential curve using SciPy.

5. Future Prediction: I calculated when Tesla might reach 17,000 miles per Critical Disengagement Event (CDE).

To give Tesla some leeway, I assume they can work on other Level 4 (L4) issues like safe disengagement while improving MTTF. Authorities approve it on day one, and all other disengagements can be resolved in the meantime. Additionally, I assume Tesla won’t hit any hardware limitations before deploying RoboTaxis. The day FSD reaches 17,000 miles per CDE is what I refer to as "RoboTaxi Day."

Graphs:

If we fit the curve using the MTTF data, RoboTaxi Day is projected to be 09-03-2036.

If we fit the curve using the 80% CI upper-bound data, RoboTaxi Day is projected to be 06-06-2029.

Thoughts:

1. Even in the best-case scenario, Tesla's RoboTaxi is still about 5 years away.

2. The adoption of end-to-end FSD does not significantly change the MTTF trend. The MTTF has remained consistent from FSD 10 to FSD 12.